MAGNAGLOBAL Predicts Flat 2012 For Radio.

MAGNAGLOBAL updated its media revenue forecast for the rest of 2011 and 2012. 2011 projections remain the same at $173.5 billion which is an increase of 1.6% over 2010. The predictions cover broadcast, print, outdoor and the Internet. MAGNAGLOBAL does not have high hopes for a 2012 recovery. "Due to persistent weakness in the US economy we have revised our 2012 growth forecast down from 4.8% to 2.9%, including Political and the Olympics. A slowdown in real personal consumption expenditures, manufacturing activity, and ongoing problems in the labor and housing markets all contribute to our revised outlook. Our estimates are further impacted by continued disinflation."

In Local Mass Media (local Radio, local TV, local Newspapers and Outdoor media), the signs of the slowdown we identified in our last update point to continued declines through the second half of 2011 and into 2012. We now expect this segment to decline -1.1% in 2011 and -0.4% in 2012, driven primarily by weakness in Newspapers (-5.5%), while Radio will be flat (-0.4%), and Outdoor should grow 4.2% in 2011 and 4.5% in 2012.

Here are more details from the report:
Under the current expectations of a slow-but-positive economic recovery in 2012, media suppliers? advertising revenues will continue to recover from the severe recession of 2008-2009. MAGNAGLOBAL expects revenues to reach $178.5 billion in 2012, which is still significantly less than the pre-recession level of 2007 ($206.1 billion).

National Mass Media will continue to gain share due to strength in national Online Display, Online Video, Mobile and National Cable Network advertising. Across our three media segments, TV will be the fastest growing medium after Online in 2012, with advertising revenues increasing 7.1% compared with Online?s 11.6%. Television will benefit from the ?quadrennial bonanza.? We believe the 2012 Elections and the Summer Olympics will generate incremental revenue of $3.1 billion for television: $2.5 billion in political advertising (the highest spending ever, mostly on local broadcast television) and $633 million around the London Olympics (up 5.5% compared with Beijing 2008, and primarily fueling National Broadcast TV revenues).

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Myers Predicts Strong 2012 Growth

Forecast 2012 co-chair, media economist, and Media Advisory Group Chairman Jack Myers promises this year's Radio Ink Forecast summit will be "a very different and unusual conference." As the "financial side" of this year's Forecast chair, Jack Myers brings some of the strongest credentials to the post. For more than two decades, he's been among the media industry's leading visionaries and economic forecasters.

Myers has advised more than 250 media companies, marketers, and agencies on business transformation, revenue development, and organizational best practices -- his clients have included Disney/ABC, General Motors, Coca-Cola, Campbell Soup Co., Reebok, AT&T, CBS-TV, Fox Broadcasting, and many more.

In a recent interview with Radio Ink Editor-in-Chief Ed Ryan, Jack outlined some of his vision for Forecast 2012, set for December 6, 2011 in New York. He also made some bold radio revenue predictions for 2012.

Click here to listen.

In addition to comprehensive analysis and insight into radio's economic forecast for 2012, this all-encompassing summit will include:
*Views from interesting companies in diverse categories such as gaming, digital commerce, and online digital video that aren't typically talking to the radio  industry. These companies have some of the best perspectives on where the business is headed in terms of incremental and new revenue opportunities in the near term.
*A solid tutorial on where new opportunities are and how to integrate those opportunities without disrupting the day-to-day flow of business, as well as insights on where the industry is headed and how to optimize revenues in 2012.
*Outlook on political advertising in 2012: How big? How much? Which candidates and issues will lead the way? And how will digital impact the flow to radio?

Forecast 2012 is closed to the working press, and sessions will not be recorded. The only way to learn and absorb all the information delivered at Forecast 2012 is to attend. There are only 200 seats available, so early registration is encouraged.

Forecast is Radio Ink's eagerly anticipated annual radio industry financial conference -- the only one of its kind. Radio owners, CEOs, CFOs, group executives, managers and Wall Street analysts gather to discuss the state of the radio industry and predictions for the coming year. Participants hear about current and upcoming trends and opportunities, and meet the trendsetters of tomorrow.

Each year after the conference, Radio Ink invites the 40 Most Powerful People in Radio to pick up their plaques and join us for cocktails in their honor. The 2011 40 Most Powerful featured more new faces than any time in the list's history, and Forecast attendees will get the exclusive opportunity to mingle with both new entrants and the perennials in New York's elegant Harvard Club. Only registered conference attendees are guaranteed invitations to the after-party. Attendance is limited to 200.

Don't miss your chance to gather with, and learn from, the best in radio at Forecast 2012. Get your tickets today!

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Sirius XM Predicts 10% Growth. Hikes Price.

September 14, 2011: Sirius XM offers financial guidance for 2012, predicting revenue growth of 10 percent, to approximately $3.3 billion for the year. The satcaster is also looking for adjusted EBITDA growth of 20 percent, to about $860 million, and 75 percent growth in free cash flow, to approximately $700 million.

"Our new guidance for 2012 demonstrates our expectation of robust growth next year," Sirius XM CEO Mel Karmazin said. "Sirius XM's outstanding financial performance in the midst of considerable economic uncertainty will continue in 2012 as we grow our subscriber base and free cash flow and anticipate that our revenue and adjusted EBITDA growth will accelerate."

Sirius XM also affirmed its 2011 guidance, looking for about 1.6 million net new subscribers, revenue of approximately $3 billion, adjusted EBITDA of about $715 million, and free cash flow "approaching $400 million."

Price Hike On The Way

Sirius XM's prices will be going up next year:  Karmazin announced that on January 1, the base price for Sirius and XM Select will rise to $14.49 a month from $12.95, and the company will also "adjust prices on man of our other programming packages."

Karmazin said, "This is the first price increase on our basic service packages since the addition of the NFL, NASCAR, Howard Stern, Martha Stewart, and many college sports to our programming lineup.  Through continued investments in technology, the best and most diverse programming in radio is available to our subscribers in cars, homes, offices, business establishments, on the Internet and smartphones.  We will expand our programming and technology further with the launch of Sirius XM 2.0 in the coming months."

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