MAGNAGLOBAL updated its media revenue forecast for the rest of 2011 and 2012. 2011 projections remain the same at $173.5 billion which is an increase of 1.6% over 2010. The predictions cover broadcast, print, outdoor and the Internet. MAGNAGLOBAL does not have high hopes for a 2012 recovery. "Due to persistent weakness in the US economy we have revised our 2012 growth forecast down from 4.8% to 2.9%, including Political and the Olympics. A slowdown in real personal consumption expenditures, manufacturing activity, and ongoing problems in the labor and housing markets all contribute to our revised outlook. Our estimates are further impacted by continued disinflation."
In Local Mass Media (local Radio, local TV, local Newspapers and Outdoor media), the signs of the slowdown we identified in our last update point to continued declines through the second half of 2011 and into 2012. We now expect this segment to decline -1.1% in 2011 and -0.4% in 2012, driven primarily by weakness in Newspapers (-5.5%), while Radio will be flat (-0.4%), and Outdoor should grow 4.2% in 2011 and 4.5% in 2012.
Here are more details from the report:
Under the current expectations of a slow-but-positive economic recovery in 2012, media suppliers? advertising revenues will continue to recover from the severe recession of 2008-2009. MAGNAGLOBAL expects revenues to reach $178.5 billion in 2012, which is still significantly less than the pre-recession level of 2007 ($206.1 billion).
National Mass Media will continue to gain share due to strength in national Online Display, Online Video, Mobile and National Cable Network advertising. Across our three media segments, TV will be the fastest growing medium after Online in 2012, with advertising revenues increasing 7.1% compared with Online?s 11.6%. Television will benefit from the ?quadrennial bonanza.? We believe the 2012 Elections and the Summer Olympics will generate incremental revenue of $3.1 billion for television: $2.5 billion in political advertising (the highest spending ever, mostly on local broadcast television) and $633 million around the London Olympics (up 5.5% compared with Beijing 2008, and primarily fueling National Broadcast TV revenues).
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