Marci Ryvicker is a director at Wells Fargo Securities and someone who holds a lot of clout with some of the most powerful people in the radio industry. When public companies hold quarterly earnings conference calls, Ryvicker is always asking questions and she's usually first in line. Her reports on the broadcast industry are often quoted and you could tell she garners a lot of respect from the group heads who were on a Thursday morning panel that followed her presentation. Her message to broadcasters was; "you need to work hard to keep radio relevant."
Ryvicker said she sees tremendous upside for radio, adding, we just don't know when we're going to see that upside. She said she expects radio to be down 1% in 2011 and up only 3% in 2012. Ryvicker told broadcasters she sees 4 areas for growth; Automotive, NTR Revenue, political and mergers and acquisitions, although she's not to sure about that last one. Referencing Cumulus' purchase of Citadel, Ryvicker said that's "one slow growth company buying another slow growth company. Does that really equal growth?"
On the political front, despite this category being very good to radio, Ryvicker says radio should be getting more political because of radio's local appeal. "You need a better message." And that may be coming with 2012 expected to be huge for political advertising. Cumulus just made a corporate hire specifically focused on political. Other companies have or plan to do the same.
Finally, Ryvicker threw out some numbers that some people have already started to dispute, and most certainly, others will question after reading this. She said radio listening is already down 6% and it's expected to drop another 6% in the near future as time spent with mobile devices is expected to double as consumer habits change. Recent Arbitron studies would counter Ryvicker's statement that radio listening is down. And if you listen to Bob Pittman of Clear Channel, Gordon Smith at the NAB and Jeff Healy at the RAB they've been saying quite the opposite all week long.
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