by Eric Rhoads
Do you ever feel like you're pinned to a dartboard, with darts flying at you from every direction? The darts, in the case of a radio operator or owner, are the constant challenges of an uncertain economy and the changing nature of the media business. Not only can you not predict where your own business will be, you're hearing stories from bloodied advertisers who can't tell from one month to the next if they'll be able to keep their doors open. The fatigue of having lasted through one of the worst economies in U.S. history has taken its toll on many an advertiser. But even worse is the lack of hope that things will get better.
Though we in radio are naturally optimistic people, we too are holding our breath because we don't know what our government will do next! We don't know what the right solution is to pull us out from the smoking rubble of this recession. We don't know if anyone in Congress is telling the truth, and we're unsure about who will be the next president.
The Shifting Generational Control Of Advertising
If the economy were not enough, even more high-speed darts are flying in your direction as we face the uncertainty of a changing media landscape. Digital media has surpassed radio and print in advertising spending -- and it's on the verge of surpassing television.
We've moved into a digital media economy, and the digital generation is increasingly in charge of making advertising decisions. Baby boomer business owners, worn down by the recession, have taken the opportunity to slow down and hand the keys to their children, who have something to prove. They don't want to follow mom and dad's path in old school media and are insisting on digital and social media alternatives. It's happening on a national and a local level, and it's shocking how quickly the media landscape has changed.
Advertisers Frozen With Fear
Unlike the pre-2007 era, we can no longer predict so much as a quarter ahead, which is why information is more critical than ever. The last time this nation entered into an election cycle, we watched as advertisers become frozen with fear -- fear that their candidate would not be elected, or fear of the status quo. For months before the election, many stopped advertising purely out of fear. The only saving grace was political spending, which made up for some of the losses from those paralyzed advertisers.
Turmoil In The Economy, Changes In Radio
What will happen to radio this time? Since the last presidential election, the economy has taken a deeper dive, unemployment isn't improving, advertisers in many categories and in many regions are hanging on by a thread, and everyone assumes Congress won't pass anything productive between now and the end of 2012. Meanwhile, we're all keeping our eyes on companies like Clear Channel, with new leadership, and Cumulus, which just acquired Citadel -- as well as big changes at other companies and radio networks. Of course, there's also Pandora, which some don't consider a factor but others feel is an indicator of significant change for radio.
We all have lots of questions. But where can we find answers?
Losing Sleep Over Endless Concerns
I toss and turn on seemingly endless nights where my mind is racing and I desperately crave sleep.
*How can we respond to these issues as an industry?
*How can we help these helpless advertisers?
*What can radio do to create jobs and boost the economy?
*What effect will the 2012 election have on the radio business, and on my own business and
my ability to make a living?
*What is really happening with digital media?
*Is radio listening really holding its own? Or is it declining while the industry denies or pretends?
*Can Pandora, Slacker, or Spotify really affect radio listening? Or are they just another empty threat?
*Will the connected car significantly impact terrestrial radio listening?
*How will the great generational shift in control of local businesses impact radio spending? Are these younger owners being naive, or is a full shift to digital a smart move?
*How do we combat media like Groupon, which are taking local dollars like a thief in the night?
*Where is radio to go next? Do we stay on the same path, move to the middle, or take a dramatic left turn? Do we invest in alternative media?
*What about the devaluation of the dollar and the possible failure of some banks? What will be the psychological effect on local advertisers if Bank of America goes under?
*When Ben Bernanke says even he and the Fed do not know what's wrong with the economy, what are the rest of us to do?
There is little time for sleep with these and other unanswered questions.
Data Points To Make Sound Decisions
Radio is ever-changing, and our industry has always managed to adapt. Most believe we will adapt to all these changes and survive. But frankly, we have to be nimble, open-minded, and not arrogant or cocky. Our willingness to listen and make necessary changes quickly is what will keep radio solvent.
We're all busy people, and it's hard to think about what we need to be doing even two months out when we're mired in daily details. That is why my team doing the homework for you and providing you with a day of data points to help you make sound decisions for 2012.
December 6, 2011 may be one of the most critical Forecast conferences you've ever attended. The level of pressure has increased and the level of change in the economy is staggering. It's for this reason that I'm focusing this year's conference even more deeply on the economy, and on the advertising economy in particular. This year's co-chairs, Peter Smyth of Greater Media and advertising economist Jack Myers, have built a stellar program of people you won't find at a radio convention. We have some of the brightest, most important minds bringing you invaluable information to help you operate your business in 2012. We intend to answer your questions to the best of our ability. We'll be making several significant announcements soon.
Take Action Now
Hold the date, December 6, 2011, and plan to join us at the Harvard Club in New York for a full day of compacted data points on radio trending, predictions on advertising, issues relating to the economy and the election, and specific action items you can take back to your company or station. If you're an owner, group manager, station manager, investor or radio board member, or radio CEO or CFO, this will be a must-attend event.
Forecast has sold out each year it's been held, and we typically have to turn people away. Book your seat now. This is a powerful investment in your business and the best possible place to find focused data points for making informed decisions about your radio business for 2012. We will follow the event with an elegant cocktail reception in the magnificent Harvard Hall to honor the individuals on Radio Ink's list of the 40 Most Powerful People in Radio. The only way to attend this important networking event if you're not on that list is to secure a seat at the Conference. Take action now. You'll not regret making sure you have a seat.
Radio Ink Forecast
December 6, 2011
The Harvard Club
New York, New York
Register at: www.radioink.com/forecast
Phone 800-610-5771 or 561-655-8778
PS: Information is the currency of today's world, and those who have access to the most information are the most powerful. Those who survive do so because they have information. Those who thrive do so because of information. We've all heard that knowledge is power. Radio Ink's deep passion for this industry drives us to create this event each year, and the majority of those in attendance return year after year because they gain the tools they need to predict their coming year and prepare for anything they might face. If you've not attended before, register early to ensure you'll get a seat; the Harvard Club limits us to 200 attendees. Thank you.
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