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Sunday, May 25, 2014

(ANALYSIS) Radio In The Year 2020

5-23-2014

It?s no surprise that since the consolidation of the radio industry started with the signing of the Telcom Act of 1996, that our business has undergone massive changes. But as we look forward to the 100th anniversary of radio, what can we expect the business to look like? It?s that question that led one of my broadcast students and me to do a research study on that very subject.

Funded by a FUSE Research Grant by the Vice President of Research at Western Kentucky University, my student Michael Bowlds and I decided to study the 300-plus radio stations in the Commonwealth of Kentucky. We presented our results at the Broadcasters Educational Association 2014 Conference in Las Vegas in April. In addition to presenting our findings, we also invited the President/CEO of the Kentucky Broadcasters Association, Gary White; Dan Vallie of Vallie, Richards Donovan Consulting; and Valerie Geller of Geller International to give their perspective on what we learned.

Spoiler Alert: The number one job that is needed to be filled in radio today and five years from now is that of a salesperson. Surprised? Neither was I. After a 42-year career in radio, 30 of those years spent as a market manager, I knew finding good salespeople was always mission critical. What did surprise us was how the demand for other positions was disappearing; like program directors and general managers.

In our survey of general managers and program directors in Kentucky, we found that 79 percent said sales would be the position most in demand, now and in the future. They also said there would be a need for Internet directors and content creators going forward. Broadcast engineers who understood RF were also going to be in short supply in the years ahead.

The School of Journalism and Broadcasting at WKU offers just one course in broadcast sales and I teach it. From that course, I?ve turned several students onto the opportunities that exist in this career path. Those students have graduated, landed jobs with great broadcasters that they love, and their management calls me looking for 10 more graduates just like them.

Backed up by this research study, I proposed, and the university has accepted, a course in advanced radio sales that will begin being offered in the spring of 2015. This course will include RAB professional certifications in both radio and digital marketing.

Some other things our survey discovered were that Kentucky radio stations tend to use satellite/network/syndicated types of programming versus voice-tracking.

Half of the managers in our survey say a live, local personality now only fills 25 percent or less of their program schedule.

When it comes to social media, Facebook dominates, with Twitter coming in as a strong second place. Ironically, a station?s own website, along with emails, clubs, and a variety of other methods, came in a distant third place.
More than half of those stations programming mainly music told us they do not pick the music they play by local management. Moreover they don?t survey their listeners to find new music, and a quarter say they never play music by local artists.

Talk radio stations, on the other hand, told us they feature local guests on either a daily or weekly basis.
When it comes to live and local talk show hosts, the managers in our survey said they see more of these locally produced programs being created to fill their program day in the years ahead.

The majority of the managers who participated in our survey told us they have worked in radio at least five years.
Gary White told us what we found in our study backs up the things he?s seeing and hearing as the leader of Kentucky?s broadcast association. Dan Vallie and Valerie Geller told us that what we learned wasn?t just happening in Kentucky but throughout the United States and in many places around the globe.

The results should be used as guide to future trends in radio as it approaches its 100th anniversary in the year 2020. We are grateful for the participation by top radio management in the Blue Grass State in our survey. It is our hope that, collectively, Kentucky?s radio leaders have been able to discern what the future of the radio industry will look like in the years ahead.

If you like a copy of our survey, you can email me at: Dick.Taylor@wku.edu

Dick Taylor is an Assistant Professor of Broadcasting at the School of Journalism and Broadcasting at Western Kentucky University in Bowling Green, Kentucky. Radio Ink named Taylor "One of radio's best managers" in 2009.

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