That's according to eMarketer which reports 2015 Holiday retail sales will reach $886 Billion, a nearly 6 percent increase over 2014. Lower gas prices play a big role in their forecast. eMarketer analyst Monica Peart. "Increases in real income from wages, further decreases in unemployment and an increased willingness to spend in traditional retail categories that missed out on the windfall in gas prices earlier on in the year should also drive growth." eMarketer is also expecting a drop in retail ecommerce holiday sales, from 14.4% in 2014 to 13.9% this year.