The advertising landscape for Radio the balance of 2011 will be a difficult one. Sometimes there's just no way to put lipstick on the pig. While there are only whispers of a double dip recession, you can tell everything just seems to be in a holding pattern. The fact that radio has always been easy to accept advertiser cancellations, makes it nearly impossible to make reliable forecasts or accept pacings reports anyone put on the table. If we could only write our contracts like a wireless phone carrier does? In a stagnant economy and a herky jerky stock market, many radio companies will probably accept being flat in Q3 and Q4. The big problem with being flat the rest of the year will be the poetical comps from 2010.
Here are some real numbers to chew on. Cumulus, Entercom and Saga detailed political revenue generated in 2010 during their Q2 conference calls. Those three companies own roughly 530 radio stations combined. In Q3 of 2010 they brought in $4.4 million of political revenue. In Q4 they brought in a combined $10.4 million. That's $15 million in radio revenue that does not exist for the balance of 2011. There may be a little issue oriented or primary buys here and there, but for the most part, that money is being raised and saved for next year. The good news is 2012 should be a banner year for radio as a presidential race, house races and issue ads will be very lucrative for radio. Add to that the weak comps you can expect from this year and everyone will look like a hero in 2012. The challenge will be the back half of 2011. The bounce back we started to see in Q1 has fizzled and unless there is some very fast good economic news the rest of the year will be a battle. Watching the stock market drop over 400 points yesterday didn't help the cause.
What is the sense in your market? Send your thoughts to edryan@radioink.com
Add a Comment Send This Story To A Friend
